Don't go into federation catch up mode so easily (#9561)

Federation catch up mode is very inefficient if the number of events
that the remote server has missed is small, since handling gaps can be
very expensive, c.f. #9492.

Instead of going into catch up mode whenever we see an error, we instead
do so only if we've backed off from trying the remote for more than an
hour (the assumption being that in such a case it is more than a
transient failure).

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