diff --git a/.ci/scripts/calculate_jobs.py b/.ci/scripts/calculate_jobs.py
new file mode 100755
index 0000000000..0cdc20e19c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/.ci/scripts/calculate_jobs.py
@@ -0,0 +1,135 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python
+# Copyright 2022 The Matrix.org Foundation C.I.C.
+#
+# Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
+# you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
+# You may obtain a copy of the License at
+#
+# http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
+#
+# Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
+# distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
+# WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
+# See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
+# limitations under the License.
+
+# Calculate the trial jobs to run based on if we're in a PR or not.
+
+import json
+import os
+
+
+def set_output(key: str, value: str):
+ # See https://docs.github.com/en/actions/using-workflows/workflow-commands-for-github-actions#setting-an-output-parameter
+ with open(os.environ["GITHUB_OUTPUT"], "at") as f:
+ print(f"{key}={value}", file=f)
+
+
+IS_PR = os.environ["GITHUB_REF"].startswith("refs/pull/")
+
+# First calculate the various trial jobs.
+#
+# For each type of test we only run on Py3.7 on PRs
+
+trial_sqlite_tests = [
+ {
+ "python-version": "3.7",
+ "database": "sqlite",
+ "extras": "all",
+ }
+]
+
+if not IS_PR:
+ trial_sqlite_tests.extend(
+ {
+ "python-version": version,
+ "database": "sqlite",
+ "extras": "all",
+ }
+ for version in ("3.8", "3.9", "3.10", "3.11")
+ )
+
+
+trial_postgres_tests = [
+ {
+ "python-version": "3.7",
+ "database": "postgres",
+ "postgres-version": "11",
+ "extras": "all",
+ }
+]
+
+if not IS_PR:
+ trial_postgres_tests.append(
+ {
+ "python-version": "3.11",
+ "database": "postgres",
+ "postgres-version": "15",
+ "extras": "all",
+ }
+ )
+
+trial_no_extra_tests = [
+ {
+ "python-version": "3.7",
+ "database": "sqlite",
+ "extras": "",
+ }
+]
+
+print("::group::Calculated trial jobs")
+print(
+ json.dumps(
+ trial_sqlite_tests + trial_postgres_tests + trial_no_extra_tests, indent=4
+ )
+)
+print("::endgroup::")
+
+test_matrix = json.dumps(
+ trial_sqlite_tests + trial_postgres_tests + trial_no_extra_tests
+)
+set_output("trial_test_matrix", test_matrix)
+
+
+# First calculate the various sytest jobs.
+#
+# For each type of test we only run on focal on PRs
+
+
+sytest_tests = [
+ {
+ "sytest-tag": "focal",
+ },
+ {
+ "sytest-tag": "focal",
+ "postgres": "postgres",
+ },
+ {
+ "sytest-tag": "focal",
+ "postgres": "multi-postgres",
+ "workers": "workers",
+ },
+]
+
+if not IS_PR:
+ sytest_tests.extend(
+ [
+ {
+ "sytest-tag": "testing",
+ "postgres": "postgres",
+ },
+ {
+ "sytest-tag": "buster",
+ "postgres": "multi-postgres",
+ "workers": "workers",
+ },
+ ]
+ )
+
+
+print("::group::Calculated sytest jobs")
+print(json.dumps(sytest_tests, indent=4))
+print("::endgroup::")
+
+test_matrix = json.dumps(sytest_tests)
+set_output("sytest_test_matrix", test_matrix)
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